Válság, technológia és jog

The adoption of Bitcoin technology follows a hierarchical pattern of speculative bubbles that matches the shape of Gartner's hype curve, which distinguishes five phases. In the study, after presenting Gartner's hype cycle, I present the life cycle of Bitcoin using the hype cycle. Bitcoin can be identified with the first four phases of the hype cycle, but it has not yet entered the last phase. The reason for this can be traced back to the periodically forming bubbles, which can also be identified with the hype cycle. In the next part of the study, I present these bubbles and the factors that shape them, such as herding behavior. On 8th of January 2009, the programmer Nakamoto published Bitcoin - a software protocol that allows decentralized transmission and storage of value - on a mailing list. Nakamoto's invention is preceded by several failed attempts to create virtual currencies such as DigiCash, Hashcash or Bitgold. Bitcoin represents a technological innovation as it represents much more than existing cryptographic ideas. The design of Bitcoin's system specifically addressed deep technical and conceptual issues that previous proposals for digital currency systems either did not fully address or simply could not address. Specifically, Hashcash and Bitgold were undermined by two fundamental problems that Nakamoto's design solved: self-monetization of cryptocurrency and decentralization of network governance. While the Hashcash system, for example, lacked inflation control, Bitcoin includes an automatic mechanism to periodically adjust the difficulty of the computational tasks that govern the issuance of new cryptocurrency. Thus, Bitcoin is able to respond to falling hardware costs with a fixed amount of computing power. So Nakamoto was able to design a decentralized form of digital money that would make it unnecessary for any central authority to control the rate of inflation. Bitcoin technology adoption follows a hierarchical pattern of speculative bubbles that matches the shape of Gartner's hype cycle.2 The curve, introduced in 1995, represents the typical evolution of emerging technologies from over-enthusiasm to disillusionment to the ultimate understanding of the technology's relevance and role in a market or field. The hype cycle confirms that most technologies move towards disillusionment after initial enthusiasm. At the same time, it gives an idea of the maturity of the technology and suggests to companies that they should not invest in a technology because it is advertised, nor should they ignore the technology just because it does not meet the early excessive expectations. The hype cycle typically appears in the early stages of the technology's life cycle, when the first rise of the hype cycle occurs, namely the rise due to hype. This usually occurs when a new technology is first discussed in the media. The peak of the hype can also be considered the peak of inflated expectations, since after this comes the period when the initial enthusiasm subsides or new introductions cease completely, so the technology enters the trough of disillusionment. However, the experiments and developments do not stop in the meantime, which results in getting to know and understanding the technology. This phase is called the slope of enlightenment.